Synthetic Controls

Brazil Results

Synthetic Controls

	Estimate (95% CI)
0	0.85 (0.75, 1.02)
1	0.77 (0.72, 0.82)
2	0.77 (0.72, 0.86)
3	0.79 (0.73, 0.89)
4	0.8 (0.68, 0.89)
5	0.78 (0.66, 0.92)
6	1.04 (0.78, 1.1)
7	1.12 (0.94, 1.41)
8	0.99 (0.88, 1.18)
9	0.76 (0.72, 0.94)

ITS

	ITS Estimate (95% CI)
0	0.83 (0.64, 1)
1	0.71 (0.59, 0.82)
2	0.79 (0.68, 0.88)
3	0.86 (0.79, 0.91)
4	0.8 (0.74, 0.85)
5	0.86 (0.79, 0.93)
6	0.99 (0.92, 1.05)
7	1.04 (0.89, 1.16)
8	0.98 (0.9, 1.07)
9	0.77 (0.68, 0.83)

STL+PCA

	STL+PCA Estimate (95% CI)
0	0.83 (0.76, 1.03)
1	0.76 (0.71, 0.86)
2	0.8 (0.73, 0.87)
3	0.76 (0.71, 0.9)
4	0.76 (0.69, 0.82)
5	0.82 (0.75, 0.93)
6	0.84 (0.75, 0.94)
7	0.96 (0.87, 1.05)
8	0.99 (0.91, 1.07)
9	0.78 (0.73, 0.94)

Inclusion Probabilities

Group	Greatest Inclusion Variable	Greatest Inclusion Probability	Second Greatest Inclusion Variable	Second Greatest Inclusion Probability	Third Greatest Inclusion Variable	Third Greatest Inclusion Probability
0	E00_99	1.0000000	cJ20_J22	1.0000000	ach_noj	0.4982576
1	cJ20_J22	1.0000000	E40_46	0.9999993	K00_99	0.1289816
2	cJ20_J22	1.0000000	E40_46	0.8655481	N39	0.3506498
3	K00_99	0.6026036	cJ20_J22	0.5598664	P00_99	0.5316111
4	pandemic	1.0000000	P00_99	0.6639353	K00_99	0.5825447
5	pandemic	1.0000000	A41	0.8678091	Z00_99	0.6021360
6	pandemic	1.0000000	E00_99	0.9133089	K35	0.2755095
7	E00_99	0.9877800	P00_99	0.4788179	cJ20_J22	0.3085363
8	A41	0.7602203	I00_99	0.5387038	H00_99_SY	0.2711395
9	cJ20_J22	1.0000000	E40_46	0.9685223	pandemic	0.1944668

Weight Sensitivity Analysis

	Estimate (95% CI)	Top Control 1	Inclusion Probability of Control 1	Control 1 Estimate (95% CI)	Top Control 2	Inclusion Probability of Control 2	Control 2 Estimate (95% CI)	Top Control 3	Inclusion Probability of Control 3	Control 3 Estimate (95% CI)
0	0.85 (0.75, 1.02)	cJ20_J22	1	0.89 (0.7, 1.14)	E00_99	1	0.89 (0.7, 1.08)	M00_99	0.35	0.87 (0.67, 1.12)
1	0.77 (0.72, 0.82)	cJ20_J22	1	0.75 (0.69, 0.9)	E40_46	1	0.75 (0.68, 0.87)	K00_99	0.13	0.79 (0.73, 1.01)
2	0.77 (0.72, 0.86)	cJ20_J22	1	0.82 (0.75, 0.97)	E40_46	0.87	0.81 (0.67, 0.96)	N39	0.35	0.78 (0.67, 0.91)
3	0.79 (0.73, 0.89)	K00_99	0.6	0.76 (0.71, 0.92)	cJ20_J22	0.56	0.77 (0.65, 0.93)	P00_99	0.53	0.75 (0.7, 0.91)
4	0.8 (0.68, 0.89)	pandemic	1	0.72 (0.57, 0.82)	P00_99	0.66	0.74 (0.64, 0.86)	K00_99	0.58	0.74 (0.59, 0.85)
5	0.78 (0.66, 0.92)	pandemic	1	0.64 (0.57, 0.79)	A41	0.87	0.85 (0.73, 0.97)	Z00_99	0.6	0.79 (0.66, 0.88)
6	1.04 (0.78, 1.1)	pandemic	1	0.84 (0.69, 0.95)	E00_99	0.91	0.85 (0.64, 0.97)	K35	0.28	0.86 (0.68, 0.96)
7	1.12 (0.94, 1.41)	E00_99	0.99	0.95 (0.81, 1.17)	P00_99	0.48	0.97 (0.82, 1.25)	cJ20_J22	0.31	0.92 (0.8, 1.29)
8	0.99 (0.88, 1.18)	A41	0.76	1.08 (0.9, 1.22)	I00_99	0.54	0.99 (0.84, 1.12)	H00_99_SY	0.27	1 (0.87, 1.1)
9	0.76 (0.72, 0.94)	cJ20_J22	1	0.75 (0.68, 0.97)	E40_46	0.97	0.8 (0.67, 0.92)	pandemic	0.19	0.78 (0.69, 0.88)

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